Uganda Shilling and Ghana Cedi to Weaken, Kenya and Nigeria Stable
By Aboki Forex —
Kampala, Sept. 24: Traders forecast the Uganda shilling and Ghana cedi will weaken against the dollar in the week to Thursday, while Kenya's shilling and Nigeria's naira are expected to hold steady. The mixed outlook reflects energy import demand, corporate FX demand and central bank actions across major African markets.
Kenya shilling stable as Middle East pressure eases
Kenya's shilling is expected to remain broadly stable over the coming week as pressure linked to the Middle East conflict eases. Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 129.55/65 per dollar, compared with 129.50/70 at last Thursday's close. Traders said interbank flows were balanced, although modest dollar demand could emerge toward month-end.
Uganda shilling under pressure
The Ugandan shilling is expected to weaken, pressured by elevated demand from energy importers. Commercial banks quoted it at 3,915/3,925, unchanged from last Thursday's close. The shilling has been under pressure in recent weeks as manufacturers and energy-sector firms increased dollar demand to manage higher fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict. Last week, it traded around its weakest level since February 2024.
Stephen Kaboyo of Alpha Capital Partners said the shilling could extend its losses and potentially test the 4,000-per-dollar level as strong dollar demand and heightened Middle East tensions continue to affect energy prices.
Ghana cedi faces persistent corporate demand
Ghana's cedi is expected to lose further ground as persistent corporate demand for foreign currency continues to exceed supply on the interbank market. LSEG data showed the cedi trading at 11.57 per dollar on Thursday, compared with 11.48 a week earlier.
A trader said the cedi could weaken in the coming week as extractive-sector FX flows have moderated while corporate demand remains strong, particularly from commerce and energy importers. The trader added that central bank auctions had been oversubscribed more than three times month-to-date, signalling firm and persistent FX demand.
Ronald Mensah, a trader at Stanbic Bank Ghana, also expected pressure on the cedi to persist in the near term.
Zambia kwacha seen strengthening
Zambia's kwacha is likely to continue strengthening against the dollar, supported by an improved economic outlook following a strong harvest and debt restructuring. Commercial banks quoted the currency at 19.78 per dollar on Thursday, compared with 19.94 a week earlier.
Diego Barnuevo, market analyst at Ebury, said elevated copper prices were reinforcing the positive economic backdrop because of the metal's importance to Zambia's economy. However, the end of a fuel-tax suspension in September and the possible onset of El Niño could increase inflation risks, Barnuevo said.
Nigeria naira holds around N1,328
Nigeria's naira is expected to remain stable, supported by central bank intervention on Wednesday to provide liquidity following a surprise interest-rate cut the previous day. The naira traded around N1,328 per dollar in intraday trading on Thursday, compared with N1,331 a week earlier. In street trading, the currency was quoted at approximately N1,380 per dollar.
One trader said the naira was expected to remain stable around current levels, citing the central bank's willingness to defend the currency.
For Nigerian businesses and consumers, a stable naira around current levels would ease near-term import cost pressures, but the wider African FX picture still points to renewed dollar strength in Uganda and Ghana.