Ghana Cedi, Uganda Shilling, Others Set to Fall Against Dollar – Reuters Poll
By Aboki Forex —
Several major African currencies including Ghana's cedi, Uganda's shilling, and Nigeria's naira are expected to weaken against the U.S. dollar over the coming week, according to a Reuters poll of traders published on July 23. Kenya's shilling and Zambia's kwacha are forecast to remain broadly stable.
Ghana: Cedi Under Pressure as Dollar Demand Outstrips Supply
Ghana's cedi is expected to remain under pressure as strong corporate demand for U.S. dollars continues to outstrip supply. LSEG data showed the cedi trading at 11.61 per dollar on Thursday, compared with 11.50 a week earlier. Traders cited heavy foreign exchange demand from the energy and commerce sectors, while bids at the central bank's FX auction exceeded supply by more than 3.5 times.
Uganda: Shilling Extends Losses on Rising Oil Prices
Uganda's shilling is forecast to extend recent losses as renewed conflict in the Middle East pushes global crude oil prices higher. Commercial banks quoted the currency at 3,735/3,745 per dollar compared with 3,685/3,695 a week earlier. Traders expect the shilling to weaken toward 3,750 unless geopolitical tensions ease.
Zambia and Kenya: Divergent Paths
Zambia's kwacha is expected to remain relatively stable, supported by firm copper prices. Commercial banks quoted the currency at 18.54 per dollar compared with 18.44 a week earlier. Analysts said strong copper prices should continue to support the currency. Meanwhile, Kenya's shilling is expected to maintain its long-running stability. Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 129.40/60 per dollar, unchanged from the previous week.
For Nigerian businesses and importers, the continued weakness of the cedi and shilling signals persistent dollar demand across the region, which could keep pressure on the naira as well. Traders will watch central bank interventions and oil price movements closely in the days ahead.