Dollar scarcity persists as CBN injects $1.98 billion and naira slips 1.31%

The naira depreciated by 1.31% in October even after the Central Bank of Nigeria injected about $1.98 billion into the foreign exchange market. Dollar shortages and festive-season demand kept pressure on the market, and CBN sales fully met demand in only two of five interventions.

Official figures showed the currency closed October 30, 2026 at ₦1,346.91 per dollar, compared with ₦1,329.50 at the end of September. The move reversed part of the gains recorded between July and September, after three consecutive months of appreciation. The pressure hit the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) as importers, manufacturers and other businesses scrambled for foreign currency ahead of Christmas and New Year.

CBN sold $1.981 billion in five exercises

The CBN injected approximately $1.98 billion through five intervention exercises in October. The transactions were $430.6 million, $200 million, $950 million, $100 million and $300 million, bringing the total to $1.981 billion.

Demand was fully satisfied in only two of the five exercises, a 40% success rate. The remaining three failed to meet all requests. The figures suggest central bank interventions alone may not guarantee sufficient liquidity when businesses compete for limited foreign currency.

Festive demand and repatriation add to pressure

Analysts expect dollar demand to intensify as businesses prepare for festive shopping. Importers traditionally increase purchases of food products, electronics, clothing, beverages and household goods ahead of Christmas. Manufacturers also need foreign currency for machinery, raw materials and other production inputs. Foreign investors seeking to repatriate earnings may add to demand.

For Nigerian businesses, difficulty accessing dollars could delay imports, disrupt production and raise operating costs. Consumers may face higher prices if exchange-rate pressure makes imported goods more expensive.

Pressure continues into November

The naira traded at ₦1,347.94 per dollar on Monday, November 2, compared with ₦1,346.26 on October 30. Interbank FX turnover declined by about 63%, from $58.85 million to $21.77 million, pointing to weaker trading activity at the start of the month. Parallel-market dealers quoted the dollar at about ₦1,385 to ₦1,390 on Tuesday, November 3, a premium over the official market.

Earlier data showed the naira lost N27.12 within two trading days despite external reserves rising to $55.16 billion. The currency depreciated to N1,361.84 per dollar on Friday, October 23, 2026, from N1,334.72 on Wednesday, October 21.

Cardoso points to liquidity reforms

CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso has maintained that the bank's long-term objective is to deepen market liquidity and reduce dependence on direct interventions. He said average daily FX turnover has increased from about $100 million to $550 million, occasionally reaching $1 billion. He attributed the improvement to reforms promoting transparency, market confidence and more efficient foreign exchange transactions.

Sustained stability will depend on stronger export earnings, foreign investment, diaspora remittances and other dollar inflows. With festive demand approaching its peak, businesses and consumers will watch whether the naira can withstand renewed pressure without another prolonged depreciation.