Seven modular refineries to add 83,000 bpd in 2027

Seven modular refineries are expected to begin operations in 2027 and add a combined 83,000 barrels per day (bpd) to Nigeria's refining capacity. George Maher-Bonnett of Argus Media gave the projection at the OTL Africa Downstream Conference in Lagos on Wednesday, October 28, 2026.

The new plants would strengthen local fuel supply. They would also sit beside the 700,000 bpd Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which Maher-Bonnett said is operating at a high rate and producing petrol steadily.

Existing modular capacity

Nigeria had four operational modular refineries in September, with combined processing capacity of 32,000 barrels daily. The seven additional facilities are scheduled to start next year. Their 83,000 bpd capacity is more than two and a half times the combined capacity of the four existing plants. If all seven become operational, Nigeria's combined modular refining capacity could reach 115,000 barrels daily.

Maher-Bonnett did not identify the proposed refineries, their owners, locations or individual production capacities. Their commissioning timelines also remain unclear, leaving questions over whether all seven projects will begin production as projected.

Dangote and demand

Maher-Bonnett acknowledged Dangote's significant contribution to Nigeria's improving fuel self-sufficiency. He said the Lekki-based refinery, with capacity of 700,000 bpd, was operating at a high rate. That has strengthened domestic fuel availability and reduced the commercial attractiveness of importing certain petroleum products from Europe. The proposed modular plants remain considerably smaller than Dangote's refinery. Their immediate impact may be greater in regional supply than in direct competition.

Nigeria's petroleum products consumption declined in 2026, largely because of elevated fuel prices. Government intervention in the market remained limited, apart from a price reduction by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited during October. The decline highlights the pressure on refiners and marketers as consumers adjust spending to higher energy costs.

Regional refining

Ghana's refining capacity is also expanding, especially the 45,000 bpd Tema refinery, which is increasing production. Maher-Bonnett said growing refining capacity across West Africa was weakening the economics of shipping petroleum products from Europe into the region. Higher freight costs have further reduced the competitiveness of European fuel shipments.

Separately, the Petroleum Training Institute (PTI), under the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources, has completed its modular refinery and plans to increase capacity for commercial use. PTI, based in Effurun, Delta State, also teaches artisanal refiners skills for processing crude oil.

For Nigeria, the seven modular refineries could deepen domestic refining capacity, encourage competition and improve fuel supply. Whether the expansion translates into lower pump prices will depend on production costs, crude oil availability, market conditions and the successful commissioning of the proposed facilities.