Nigeria stability score 4.3 as security rating drops to 1.6

Nigeria recorded an overall Stability Score of 4.3 out of 10 in August 2026, with security the weakest pillar at 2.0 out of 10. The security rating fell further to 1.6 out of 10 in September, a 0.4-point drop in one month, according to the Nigeria Stability Index.

The NSI said the gap between public confidence in security and in the economy is widening. FX and Economy and Investor Confidence received stronger ratings than security, but the index did not release specific September scores for those pillars.

Security remains weakest pillar

The September security score of 1.6 out of 10 points to worsening public sentiment on personal safety and the broader security environment. The August security score was 2.0 out of 10. The NSI measures public sentiment, not independently verified changes in crime rates or security incidents.

The index tracks five pillars: Security, Social Stability, FX and Economy, Governance, and Investor Confidence. It publishes monthly scores to show how respondents assess conditions across different parts of national life.

Economy scores stronger but incomplete

The report identified FX and Economy and Investor Confidence as among the better-performing categories in recent assessments. That suggests respondents see comparatively more positive developments in Nigeria's economic and investment environment than in security. The NSI, however, did not provide September figures for these pillars in the released data, making the precise scale of improvement difficult to determine.

The contrasting results show that stronger economic sentiment does not automatically translate into broader confidence when security concerns remain unresolved. For policymakers, investors and other stakeholders, the findings point to the need to address safety concerns alongside economic challenges.

State and institution spotlight

Beyond the monthly Stability Score, the NSI publishes State Spotlight and Institution Spotlight features. These reports highlight documented achievements by state governments and public institutions, offering additional views on governance and institutional performance.

The latest results come as Nigeria's headline inflation rate declined to 14.63% in September 2026 from 15.39% in August. The National Bureau of Statistics disclosed the figures in its Consumer Price Index report released on Thursday, October 15, 2026.

For the naira, consumers and Nigerian businesses, the stronger FX and investor confidence ratings may support sentiment. But the weak security score remains a clear risk to confidence, investment and daily commercial activity.