Brent at $115.18 Could Push Dangote, Depots to Raise Petrol Price Again

Nigerians could face another round of petrol price increases as Brent crude surged to $115.18 per barrel amid Middle East tensions and fears of supply disruptions. Dangote Petroleum Refinery and several depot operators currently sell Premium Motor Spirit at ₦1,350 per litre at their gantries. No fresh adjustment has been announced, but rising replacement costs could force refiners and importers to review rates.

Crude rally raises replacement cost

Oilprice.com data showed Brent climbed 1.8% to $115.18 per barrel on Friday, its highest level in five months. The United States West Texas Intermediate benchmark rose 2% to $101.56 per barrel. Reuters reported Brent touched $115.16 per barrel, its highest since May 4, putting it on course for a third consecutive weekly gain.

The rally followed concerns over possible renewed military strikes involving the United States and Iran, and attacks on critical energy infrastructure in the Middle East. Reports said Iran-backed Houthi militants targeted energy facilities and other infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Aramco evacuated personnel from its headquarters in Dhahran amid heightened security concerns. A drone attack on the Shaybah oil field reportedly killed two people. Another attack on King Fahd International Airport in Dammam caused additional casualties.

United States President Donald Trump heightened market uncertainty after indicating Washington was not negotiating with Iran and suggesting further developments could occur soon. Iranian military authorities said the country's armed forces were prepared for further confrontation. Market attention is also on the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic shipping corridor through which a substantial proportion of internationally traded oil normally passes. Further disruption could raise shipping, insurance and crude procurement costs.

Dangote and depot prices under watch

Dangote Petroleum Refinery previously raised its petrol gantry price from ₦1,265 to ₦1,350 per litre effective September 12, an increase of ₦85, Punch reported. Independent depot owners could also review prices as the cost of replacing existing inventories rises. The timing and scale of any new increase remain uncertain.

The pressure comes as Nigeria’s estimated petrol import parity price climbed to N1,253.40 per litre on October 19, up from N1,246.36 on October 16, according to the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria. The N7.04 rise represents a 0.56% increase in the spot import parity price at the ASPM jetty in Apapa, as captured in MEMAN’s Energy Bulletin.

What it means for households and businesses

A fresh petrol price increase would worsen transportation expenses, food distribution costs and operating expenses for businesses that depend on petrol-powered generators. Commercial transport operators may pass higher fuel costs to passengers, putting more pressure on household budgets. Rising crude prices could improve Nigeria's oil export earnings, but consumers remain exposed to higher domestic fuel costs. Attention will stay on Dangote Refinery and depot operators as marketers assess whether the crude rally will translate into another increase at filling stations.