IMF to Tinubu: Nigerians are suffering, introduce targeted cash transfers

The International Monetary Fund has urged the federal government to introduce targeted cash transfers and temporary income support for vulnerable households, saying Nigeria's strong growth figures are hiding real hardship. The Fund said the measures would help cut poverty and improve food security as food and energy prices keep squeezing household budgets.

Deniz Igan, Chief of the IMF Research Department's World Economic Studies Division, made the recommendation at a press briefing on the Fund's October 2026 World Economic Outlook, held during the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.

Growth is not reaching ordinary Nigerians

Igan said Nigeria's economy has held up largely because it is an energy exporter, but that this tells only part of the story.

She said: “Nigeria is a good example. While growth held up in Nigeria, given that it is an energy exporter, power pressures are still very high, and we are mindful that the population is suffering, especially when it comes to food security."

She added that rising food and energy prices were making life harder for vulnerable households, which makes government assistance necessary.

Igan said: “In that environment, what we are advocating for is cash transfers and targeted, temporary income support for the most vulnerable households in Nigeria. That can alleviate high poverty and help ensure food security."

Relief must sit on a credible fiscal plan

The IMF warned that any relief package must be backed by a credible medium-term fiscal plan focused on improving revenue collection and ensuring public funds are spent effectively. According to Igan, handing out support without strengthening public finances could undermine economic stability over time.

The Fund projected Nigeria's economy to expand by 4.2% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. It said higher prices for essential goods could still worsen poverty and food insecurity, exposing the gap between headline growth and the living conditions of ordinary Nigerians.

Nigerian households are still battling high food prices, transport costs, energy expenses and other essential bills. Although Nigeria is a major oil producer, higher international oil prices do not automatically translate into lower living costs. Energy price increases also push up transport and production costs, which feeds straight into household budgets.

Global risks and the reform defence

In the same October 2026 World Economic Outlook, the IMF projected global growth of 3.1% in 2026 before improving to 3.4% in 2027. It warned that further disruptions to energy supplies could weaken activity and push inflation higher, with developing economies facing heightened risks. The Fund also flagged rising energy and commodity prices, public debt and uncertainty around artificial intelligence as global pressures to watch.

Back home, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, has defended the Bola Tinubu administration's reform programme. He said the rise in poverty that followed the policy changes was an unavoidable part of correcting long-standing fiscal imbalances, not a sign that the reforms had failed. He spoke amid concerns over the human cost of the reforms, particularly the removal of fuel subsidies.

For Nigerian businesses and consumers, the IMF's message points to one thing: until household purchasing power improves, domestic demand will stay weak even as GDP numbers look strong. Cash transfers, if delivered, would put money directly into the hands of traders, food sellers and small businesses that depend on daily spending.