Nigeria Records World's Steepest Diesel Price Rise at 82.7%, UNCTAD Says

Nigeria posted the steepest diesel price increase among all countries and territories assessed by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Diesel prices jumped 82.7 per cent between February 23 and August 31, 2026, according to the agency's report released on Friday, October 9.

The ranking measures how sharply prices rose, not which country sells the most expensive diesel per litre.

Lebanon, Peru and Guatemala follow

Lebanon came second with a 73.6 per cent increase in diesel prices. Peru and Guatemala recorded rises of 66.7 per cent and 66.3 per cent respectively.

Nigeria also ranked fourth for petrol price increases, with a 48.1 per cent rise during the review period. Myanmar recorded the largest petrol increase at 50.7 per cent, followed by the United Arab Emirates at 49.8 per cent and Malaysia at 48.4 per cent.

UNCTAD said developing economies, particularly across Asia and Africa, experienced some of the sharpest domestic fuel price increases. Higher energy costs weaken purchasing power, leaving consumers with less money for other needs.

What is driving the surge

The report linked the energy shock to damaged infrastructure and disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for international energy supplies. Brent crude climbed from about $70 to more than $110 per barrel after the conflict began. UNCTAD expects prices to remain more than $30 above pre-conflict levels through the end of 2026.

For Nigerian businesses, the pain goes beyond filling stations. Higher diesel costs raise spending on generators, haulage and distribution, creating pressure to raise prices or absorb smaller profit margins. Households may face higher costs for goods and services even when they do not buy diesel directly.

Mixed outlook for Nigeria

Nigeria's position as an oil exporter gives a mixed picture. UNCTAD identified Nigeria, Angola, Guyana and Kazakhstan as exporters that could benefit from stronger international energy prices through increased export earnings. But higher crude receipts do not automatically translate into cheaper domestic fuel, since countries that still import refined products remain exposed to higher international supply costs.

Expanding refining capacity offers some protection. Domestic figures indicate Dangote Petroleum Refinery supplied about 50 million litres of petrol daily during the first half of 2026. Average daily petrol imports declined by 26 per cent, from 19.7 million litres in July to 14.6 million litres in August, according to regulatory data. Those improvements have not eliminated exposure to international energy shocks.

UNCTAD also highlighted electric motorbikes and buses as longer-term options for reducing dependence on petrol and diesel.

Meanwhile, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited extended its N66 discount promotion on petrol for another week and expanded the offer to include automotive gas oil, commonly known as diesel. The promotion runs from Thursday, October 8, to Wednesday, October 14, 2026.

For Nigerian businesses and consumers, the figures point to an expensive stretch ahead. Diesel at these levels feeds directly into transport, power and production costs, the same costs that shape inflation and the prices traders pass on to buyers.