Dangote Group Forecasts Naira at N1,330/$ in Q4 2026

The Dangote Group expects the naira to trade at N1,330 per dollar in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a full-year average of N1,385/$. The projection is contained in the group’s Economic Research and Intelligence H1 2026 Economic Report, obtained by Nairametrics.

The forecast rests on rising foreign reserves, foreign investment inflows and a lower fuel import bill as domestic refining capacity expands. It comes as Nigeria’s net foreign reserves reached $46 billion and the World Bank named the naira one of Africa’s more resilient currencies in Q2 2026.

How the naira performed in H1 2026

The report said the naira appreciated by about 4% in the first half of 2026. It traded around N1,380/$ in the official foreign exchange market before strengthening to approximately N1,330/$ in August.

The group expects the currency to average N1,385/$ for the full year, with quarterly projections pointing to further stability. The report stated: “Staff project the naira to hold its firmer level, averaging N1,405/$ in the second quarter, about N1,340/$ in the third and N1,330/$ in the fourth, for a full-year average close to N1,385/$.”

What is driving the forecast

Expanded domestic refining is expected to ease pressure on dollar demand by reducing the foreign exchange needed to import petrol and other refined petroleum products. Lower fuel import requirements could improve Nigeria’s external balance and support foreign reserves, provided other foreign exchange inflows remain favourable.

The World Bank identified the naira as one of Africa’s more resilient currencies in the second quarter of 2026, noting that its maximum depreciation was limited to 2.6% during the period. Nigeria’s net foreign reserves reached a record $46 billion, helping to strengthen investor confidence.

Dangote had earlier advised Nigerians to sell their dollars, saying the naira exchange rate would improve further in the coming months.

Other projections and refinery output

Femi Otedola projected the naira could appreciate to below N1,000 per dollar before year-end. The positive outlook came after Dangote Refinery announced it had hit full capacity production. The refinery said it now has capacity to supply up to 75 million litres of PMS daily.

The Dangote Group’s forecast suggests the naira could retain its recent strength through the end of 2026. The actual exchange rate will depend on foreign investment flows, reserve levels, oil earnings and demand for foreign exchange.

For Nigerian businesses and consumers, a firmer naira could reduce imported input costs and ease pressure on prices, but the outcome hinges on whether inflows remain strong and fuel imports keep falling.