Nigeria's petrol stock cover rises to 22.9 days but still falls 7.1 days short of NMDPRA benchmark

Nigeria's petrol stock cover rose to 22.9 days in August, up from 22.4 days in July. That is a 2.2 per cent month-on-month improvement. It still leaves the country 7.1 days below the 30-day strategic inventory benchmark set by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

The gain came as locally refined petrol took a bigger share of the market. Domestic Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) receipts jumped 39 per cent, from 25.8 million litres per day in July to 35.9 million litres per day in August, while imports dropped 26 per cent from 19.7 million litres per day to 14.6 million litres per day.

Receipts rise, consumption falls

Total daily PMS receipts climbed 11 per cent, from 45.5 million litres per day in July to 50.5 million litres in August. Consumption moved the other way. Petrol use fell 14 per cent, from 48.3 million litres per day to 41.5 million litres per day.

That put August consumption 8.5 million litres below the NMDPRA daily benchmark of 50 million litres. So even with lower demand and stronger local supply, the country has not closed the stock gap.

Dangote carries domestic refining

The Dangote refinery remained the dominant source of locally refined PMS. It averaged production of 41.94 million litres per day. About 35.87 million litres per day was received into the domestic market, while exports averaged 9.73 million litres daily. The refinery ended August with petrol stocks of 360.4 million litres.

The wider refining picture stayed mixed. NMDPRA data showed that NNPCL-owned refineries were not producing during the period. Among modular refineries, utilisation varied widely. Edo Refinery recorded 90.43 per cent, WalterSmith 64.77 per cent, Aradel 58.77 per cent and OPAC 16.97 per cent.

Diesel position stays comfortable

Diesel supply was far stronger. Automotive Gas Oil stock cover increased from 46.5 days in July to 51.6 days in August. That placed diesel inventory 21.6 days above the regulator's 30-day strategic benchmark.

Petrol prices have also been easing at the depot level. A weekly market review by Petroleumprice.ng showed depot rates falling to as low as N1,330 per litre in Warri, Port Harcourt and Calabar, while Lagos held relatively firm at around N1,350 per litre.

For consumers and businesses, the direction of travel matters. More local refining and fewer imports reduce exposure to foreign exchange for petrol supply. But with stock cover still 7.1 days short of the strategic requirement, the market remains thinner than the regulator would like, and any disruption to domestic production would quickly show up in prices.