First HoldCo tops tier-1 banks with 31.63% ROAE as shares hit record N159.90

First HoldCo Plc posted a 31.63% return on average equity (ROAE) in the first quarter of 2026, beating every other tier-1 bank in Nigeria and the six major South African lenders included in its investor presentation comparison.

The parent company of FirstBank, Nigeria's oldest bank, founded in 1894, has also delivered the best share performance among Nigerian banks this year, gaining 194.4% as of September 14.

How it compares with Nigerian peers

Zenith Bank came in at 24.90%, Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GTCO) at 24.80%, Access Holdings at 19.86% and United Bank for Africa (UBA) at 13.70%. The median ROAE among the five Nigerian banks was 24.80%, leaving First HoldCo well above the group midpoint.

South African lenders trail

The comparison with South African lenders, measured over different periods, showed a wider gap. Capitec came closest at 29.12%, followed by FirstRand at 19.58%, Standard Bank at 18.73%, Absa at 13.67%, Investec at 12.46% and Nedbank at 7.44%. The median across the six banks was 16.20%.

By the end of the first half of 2026, First HoldCo's ROAE had settled at 30.37%, according to its results presentation.

Premium valuation and the Otedola stake

Investors are paying far more for First HoldCo than for most of its peers. The stock trades at about 1.91 times book value and 17.56 times earnings, against a Nigerian median of 1.01 times book value and 5.65 times earnings. Access Holdings trades at 0.43 times book value and UBA at 0.49 times.

First HoldCo shares hit a record N159.90 on September 1 and have gained 194.4% so far this year as of September 14. Much of the buying interest is tied to consistent share purchases by chairman Femi Otedola, who holds about 27.6% of the group and has said publicly that he intends to push his stake past 51%.

Banking sector rally

The wider sector has had a strong run. The NGX Banking Index gained 67.96% in the year to September 14, outpacing the broader market's 56.35% rise. The combined market value of 12 major banks climbed from N16.44 trillion in December to N27.61 trillion over the same period.

Investors are still watching how much of Nigerian banks' reported profits come from recurring operations such as lending and fees, rather than currency revaluation gains triggered by the naira's depreciation after the 2023 foreign exchange reforms.

First HoldCo was also added to the FTSE Frontier 50 Index, with FTSE Russell selecting it alongside Dangote Cement, MTN Nigeria, Aradel Holdings, GTCO and Zenith Bank as six Nigerian entries into the 50-stock benchmark. The changes take effect after the close of trading on September 18, with the revised index live from September 21. Nigeria returns to FTSE Russell's Frontier Market classification on the same date, having been listed as an unclassified market since 2023.

For Nigerian investors, the gap between First HoldCo's returns and its valuation is the key question. The stock trades at nearly double the sector median on book value, so the run depends on whether earnings keep pace with the premium the market is paying.