Diesel Import Cost Nears N2,000 as Dangote Refinery Holds N1,850

Nigeria's estimated diesel landing cost has climbed to N1,917.82 per litre, according to the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN), pushing the import price N67.82 above the N1,850 per litre quoted by Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

The figure comes from MEMAN's Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) import-parity report for September 10, 2026, and it raises the prospect of another round of diesel price increases across the country.

Lagos depots still sell below import cost

Checks on Lagos depot prices on September 14 showed several suppliers selling diesel below MEMAN's estimated landing cost. Chipet, Pinnacle and Wosbab quoted AGO at about N1,855 per litre, while Ibeto offered the product at approximately N1,835 per litre.

The gap suggests some marketers are still offloading inventories bought at lower prices rather than replacing stock at current international rates. That cushion will not last. As older inventories run out, suppliers face the choice of absorbing the higher replacement cost or passing it to buyers.

What is driving the numbers

MEMAN's import-parity calculation bundles international product prices, crude oil benchmarks, shipping and other market variables, plus the naira-dollar exchange rate. Its September 10 report put the exchange rate at between N1,334.66 and N1,334.67 per dollar.

The 30-day average AGO import parity stood at N1,729.57 per litre. The latest N1,917.82 estimate sits well above that average, a sign of how quickly international supply conditions have shifted.

The trigger is the intensifying US-Iran conflict, which has raised concerns about oil production, shipping routes and the movement of refined petroleum products out of the Middle East. Disruption around the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb has added to supply risk, while uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil transit routes, continues to weigh on energy markets.

Dangote price offers short term relief

At N1,850 per litre, Dangote Refinery's current diesel price remains N67.82 below MEMAN's estimated import cost. That difference offers some protection to manufacturers, logistics companies and businesses that run generators.

The relief is conditional. Traders are watching for any adjustment to the refinery's domestic AGO price. If international crude and refined-product prices stay elevated, the domestic market faces renewed upward pressure.

The petrol side has already moved. Dangote Refinery raised its petrol gantry price from N1,265 to N1,350 per litre, and checks on Saturday, September 12, 2026 showed pump prices reaching as high as N1,395 per litre at several filling stations.

What it means for Nigerian businesses

A diesel price approaching or crossing N2,000 per litre would hit transport, production and distribution budgets that are already stretched. Those costs typically find their way into the final price of goods, which means consumers should expect to pay more if the import-parity gap is not closed by the refinery's pricing.