Petrol Prices May Rise Again as Brent Crude Surges Above $107 on Hormuz Disruption
By Aboki Forex —
Petrol prices in Nigeria could come under fresh pressure after Brent crude rose to $107.63 per barrel on Thursday, September 10, with West Texas Intermediate climbing above $100, according to Reuters. The rally followed escalating attacks linked to the US-Iran conflict and disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
The increase has renewed concerns in a market where pump prices have already climbed sharply in recent weeks. Imported petrol was selling at an import-parity price of about ₦1,310.64 per litre in early September, against ₦1,265 per litre for petrol from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, according to industry data reported by The PUNCH.
Why Crude Is Rising
The Strait of Hormuz is a major global oil transit route, and disruption to shipping there has raised fears of tighter crude supplies and higher transportation costs. Reuters reported that attacks on tankers and uncertainty over how long the conflict will last have increased pressure on the oil market.
With traders reassessing supply risks, a prolonged disruption could keep crude prices elevated and feed into the cost of refined petroleum products. For Nigeria, higher international crude prices raise the cost of imported petrol and complicate pricing decisions for local refiners.
Dangote Refinery Under Pressure
The Dangote refinery has already adjusted its petrol prices several times in recent weeks, with its gantry price reaching ₦1,265 per litre on August 29. It remains a major supplier of petrol to the Nigerian market.
The US Energy Information Administration reported that Nigeria's seaborne petroleum product shipments averaged 561,000 barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, supported by increased production at the refinery.
Even so, the plant is exposed to changes in crude oil costs. Its chief executive, David Bird, recently warned that global fuel shortages could persist beyond the current Iran conflict, citing damage to Middle Eastern refining infrastructure and the need to rebuild inventories.
What Motorists Should Expect
A fresh rise in international crude prices does not automatically translate to higher petrol prices nationwide. The actual impact will depend on crude procurement costs, exchange rates, import-parity prices, distribution expenses and pricing decisions by refiners and depot operators.
Landing cost has already risen to ₦1,311 per litre, prompting depot owners across major Lagos loading hubs to withhold sales as rising replacement costs fuel talk of another increase. That development came as international crude prices approached $105 per barrel, adding pressure to the cost of importing Premium Motor Spirit into Nigeria.
For households and businesses, the risk is straightforward. Any sustained rally in crude keeps import parity above the Dangote gantry price, and depot operators facing higher replacement costs have little incentive to sell cheap. If crude stays above $100, the next round of petrol price adjustments may be difficult to avoid.