Naira on track for best year since 2018, analysts see N1,290 per dollar by end 2026

Analysts from four investment firms forecast the naira will strengthen to around N1,290 per dollar before the end of 2026, putting the currency on course for its best annual performance in at least eight years. The naira currently trades at N1,328.92 in the official foreign exchange market.

If the projected level holds, the naira would gain roughly 12% over the full year, surpassing the approximately 8% gain already recorded since January. The currency closed at N1,315.67 per dollar in the official market on Thursday, gaining N11.02, or 0.84%, from the N1,326.69 recorded the previous day.

What the analysts are saying

Forecasts across the four firms span a range of N1,200 to N1,350 per dollar. CardinalStone puts its estimate at around N1,310, while Zedcrest Capital projects approximately N1,300. Cordros Securities expects a range of N1,250 to N1,350, and MDU Capital offers the most optimistic view, forecasting a range of N1,200 to N1,300 per dollar.

Analysts point to firmer foreign exchange liquidity, rising oil revenues and growing remittance inflows as the key forces behind the naira's recent resilience. Interbank turnover climbed 62.33% to $152.04 million, with the number of deals rising from 105 to 153.

External reserves and remittances support the currency

Nigeria's external reserves reached $53.99 billion as of September 2, their highest level in 18 years, giving the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) greater capacity to manage the foreign exchange market. In August, the naira appreciated 1.5% in the official market, while overall foreign exchange turnover rose to $14.68 billion, its highest in five months.

Remittance flows have added further support. Inflows through International Money Transfer Operators reached $947 million in July, the largest single-month figure recorded through formal channels. Over the first seven months of 2026, IMTO inflows totalled $3.8 billion, a 50.2% increase compared with the same period in 2025.

CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso credited regulatory reforms for the improvement, including changes to the IMTO framework and the introduction of the Non-Resident Bank Verification Number. Cardoso said: "When we set a clear ambition to reach $1 billion a month in remittance inflows through formal channels nearly two years ago, some people thought we were dreaming. At $947 million in July, we are now approaching that milestone."

Oil income and parallel market gap

Average Brent crude prices also rose 5% to $87.26 per barrel in August, briefly crossing $90 amid Middle East tensions. System liquidity grew 56.17% to N4.65 trillion during the same month.

The naira's gains in the official market have not been matched in the parallel market, where the currency held around N1,400 per dollar on Thursday. That left the gap between the two rates at 6.46%, up from 4.63% the day before.

For Nigerian businesses and households, a firmer official rate could help ease import costs and price pressures, but the widening parallel market gap remains a sign that demand for dollars is still strong outside official channels.