Dangote to export surplus petrol as imports rise to 43% of Nigeria's supply

Nigeria's petrol imports jumped to 43 per cent of total supply in July, and Dangote Petroleum Refinery says it will be forced to export surplus fuel because import licences are making it hard to plan for domestic demand. The company insists the move does not mean it cannot supply Nigeria.

Imports climb despite local refining

Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed imported Premium Motor Spirit averaged 19.7 million litres per day in July, up from 18.1 million litres per day in June. Domestic refineries supplied 25.8 million litres per day in July, down from 32.5 million litres in June.

Combined supply stood at 45.5 million litres daily in July, with imports accounting for roughly 43.3 per cent. The jump is sharp compared with May, when imports averaged just 5.9 million litres per day, about 12 per cent of total supply. Imports then rose to 18.1 million litres in June before climbing again in July.

Dangote's warning

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery said the continued issuance of petrol import licences makes it difficult to predict domestic demand and manage inventory. It said it has maintained sufficient petrol stocks and reserved volumes to keep Nigeria supplied, according to a report by Punch.

But uncertainty over the volume of imported products entering the market makes it commercially difficult to hold large quantities of excess fuel in storage indefinitely. Surplus petrol that cannot be absorbed by the domestic market will increasingly have to be exported to regional and international markets.

Dangote stressed that exports are a response to excess inventory created by uncertainty around imported fuel volumes, not an inability to supply Nigeria.

Nigeria's strange fuel position

The Guardian reported that the latest development highlights the volatility surrounding Nigeria's transition from a major petrol importer to a country with growing domestic refining capacity.

Between January and July 2026, domestic refineries supplied approximately 74.9 per cent of Nigeria's petrol, while imports accounted for 25.1 per cent, according to an analysis of NMDPRA data. Domestic supply during that period was significantly higher than in the same months of 2025.

Yet the month-to-month swings show imports remain an important fallback whenever domestic production dips. At the same time, the US Energy Information Administration reported that Nigeria's seaborne petroleum-product exports increased more than sevenfold since 2023, driven largely by Dangote's output. Nigeria is now exporting refined products while still importing significant volumes of petrol.

Impact on consumers

Dangote is calling for greater transparency, better market coordination and policies that support local refining while keeping fuel supplies reliable. The company also increased its petrol gantry price by ₦20 per litre, moving from ₦1,165 to ₦1,185 per litre, effective from midnight on Friday, August 21, 2026. Nigerian consumers and businesses will feel the pressure as petrol prices rise while the fuel market adjusts to a mix of local refining, imports and shifting demand.