Nigeria's headline inflation falls to 15.43% in July 2026, food prices stay hot

Nigeria's headline inflation rate dropped to 15.43% year-on-year in July 2026, down from 15.91% in June, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The July figure is a 0.48 percentage-point decline from the previous month.

Month-on-month headline inflation also eased to 1.57% in July, from 1.66% in June. The NBS said the decline means the rate of increase in average price levels was slower in July than in June.

Food inflation tells a different story

Food inflation climbed to 20.31% year-on-year in July 2026, though it stayed below the 26.20% recorded in the same month of 2025. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation rose sharply to 5.56% in July, up from 3.75% in June, a jump of 1.82 percentage points.

The NBS attributed the rise in food prices to changes in the average prices of crayfish, fresh pepper, fresh onions, carrots, rice, water yam, fresh tomatoes, garri, plantain, beef, eggs, guinea corn, ginger and plantain flour. The bureau said the year-on-year increase was driven mainly by higher prices of rice, water yam and plantain.

State-by-state: Adamawa leads, Borno records decline

Food inflation varied widely across states in July 2026. On a year-on-year basis, Adamawa recorded the highest food inflation rate at 51.36%, followed by Katsina at 30.84% and Zamfara at 30.65%. The slowest year-on-year increases were in Borno at -0.31%, Nasarawa at 6.88% and Kebbi at 12.50%.

Month-on-month, Adamawa again topped the chart at 17.02%, followed by Lagos at 13.48% and Borno at 13.26%. Jigawa recorded the largest monthly decline at -3.68%, with Kebbi at -3.67% and Bauchi at -1.85%.

Jollof rice costs hit households

The food pressure is visible in everyday meals. The cost of preparing a pot of jollof rice for a family of five is now almost N30,000. According to the latest SBM Intelligence Jollof Index for Q2 2026, the national average cost of cooking the country's most popular meal rose from N25,798 in July 2025 to N29,578 in June 2026, a 14.6% increase within one year. Over the past decade, the cost of making a pot of jollof rice has surged by 624%.

For Nigerian consumers and businesses, the headline inflation drop offers some relief, but food inflation remains the main pressure point. With staples and prepared meals still getting costlier, household budgets are likely to stay stretched even as the overall inflation picture improves.