Nigerian businesses expect naira to gain against dollar until January 2027, CBN survey shows

Nigerian businesses expect the naira to gradually strengthen against the US dollar between now and January 2027, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria's July 2026 Business Expectations Survey, released on Thursday, August 7. The apex bank said the overall Business Confidence Index stood at 5.7 points in July, reflecting continued positive sentiment among formal businesses despite ongoing macroeconomic pressures.

Confidence drivers and sector performance

Three factors dominated businesses' reasons for optimism. Increased demand accounted for 22.3 per cent of responses, economic diversification represented 21.4 per cent, and improved access to finance made up 15.0 per cent.

Confidence remained positive across all broad sectors in July. The Industry sector's index rose to 11.5 points from 10.5 points, while the Services sector climbed to 3.6 points from 2.9 points. The Agriculture sector saw a sharp decline, dropping to 3.4 points from 12.2 points.

The electricity, gas and water sector posted the highest Business Confidence Index at 59.4 points and recorded the strongest expansion prospects heading into August 2026. Regionally, businesses in Northern Nigeria reported stronger confidence in July than those in the South, though the CBN said respondents across all regions maintained positive expectations for August.

Top risks facing businesses

Despite the broadly optimistic tone, businesses flagged several challenges that could slow recovery. Inflation remained the dominant concern, accounting for 27.7 per cent of identified risks. Energy-related challenges followed at 23.4 per cent, insecurity at 22.4 per cent, and heightened geopolitical uncertainties at 16.5 per cent.

What this means for the naira

The positive currency outlook sits alongside broader expectations of improved economic conditions over the months ahead. However, the CBN cautioned that inflation, energy costs, insecurity and global uncertainties remain risks that could shape both the naira and the wider business environment through January 2027. For now, businesses are betting on a firmer naira, but those bets depend on how quickly the identified risks are brought under control.