Nigeria consumes less petrol in H1 2026 despite local refining surge, NMDPRA data shows

Nigeria's petrol consumption fell by about 52 million litres in the first half of 2026, even as local refining capacity rose. Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) shows that between January and June 2026, Nigerians consumed an estimated 9.316 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), compared with 9.368 billion litres in the same period of 2025.

That is a decline of 52 million litres, or 0.56%. The regulator said consumption figures are based on the quantity of petrol transported by trucks into the domestic market.

Higher prices temper demand

The drop came as motorists continued to face higher fuel prices after the removal of the petrol subsidy and deregulation of the downstream oil sector. NMDPRA data put average retail prices in June 2026 at N1,284.50 per litre in Lagos and N1,393 per litre in Maiduguri. In November 2025, prices ranged from N910 per litre in Lagos to N982.50 per litre in Maiduguri.

Monthly demand fluctuated through the half year. Average daily consumption was 60.2 million litres in January, then 56.9 million in February, 47.3 million in March, 51.1 million in April, 46.3 million in May, and 47.4 million in June. Monthly totals were 1.866 billion litres in January, 1.593 billion in February, 1.466 billion in March, 1.533 billion in April, 1.435 billion in May, and 1.422 billion in June.

Local refineries tighten grip

Despite the softer demand, domestic refining strengthened its position. Local refineries delivered about 6.609 billion litres of PMS over the six months, accounting for 77.9% of the 8.482 billion litres supplied to the domestic market. Imported petrol made up the remaining 1.873 billion litres, or 22.1%.

Local refinery deliveries averaged 40.1 million litres per day in January, 29.4 million in February, 34.2 million in March, 40.7 million in April, 41.5 million in May, and 32.5 million in June. Imported volumes averaged 24.8 million litres daily in January before crashing to 3.0 million in February. They were 5.9 million in March, 3.7 million in April, 5.9 million in May, and 18.1 million in June.

Overall fuel supply averaged 64.9 million litres daily in January, 32.4 million in February, 40.1 million in March, 44.4 million in April, 47.4 million in May, and 50.6 million in June.

June receipts and Dangote output

The June report shows total daily PMS receipts rose 7% from 47.4 million litres in May to 50.6 million litres in June. Imports jumped 207%, from 5.9 million to 18.1 million litres per day, while domestic receipts fell 22% from 41.5 million to 32.5 million litres per day.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery continues to dominate. In June 2026, it ran at an average capacity utilisation of 101.36%, producing 39.1 million litres of PMS daily. It supplied 32.5 million litres per day to the domestic market, exported 3.4 million litres daily, and ended the month with 410.7 million litres of petrol in storage.

However, Nigeria's strategic fuel reserve remains below target. The NMDPRA reported 20 days of PMS stock sufficiency in June, short of its 30-day benchmark.

For consumers and businesses, the data points to continued price pressure, with local refiners now the main source of supply. Higher pump prices appear to be gradually shaping behaviour, even as Nigeria's petroleum supply landscape shifts towards domestic production.