Experts warn of rice and tomato shortages in six months as food inflation worsens

Nigerians may face food price hikes and shortages of rice, tomatoes and other staple foods within the next three to six months, experts have warned. The forecast comes as dealers report volatile prices and industry stakeholders point to declining farm output, insecurity, rising transport costs and poor storage.

Rice output set to drop by six percent

Mr Alexander Isong, President of the Organisation for Technology Advancement of Cold Chain in West Africa (OTACCWA), said Nigeria's food supply chain is under growing pressure and could worsen before the end of the year. Speaking with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), Isong projected that rice production would decline by six percent to about 8.3 million tonnes. The total area under cultivation could shrink by seven percent to approximately 4.2 million hectares.

Data from the United States Department of Agriculture also shows a five percent year-on-year drop in Nigeria's rice output. Isong warned that tomatoes face similar challenges, with shortages expected to persist until the late harvest season in October. Beyond rice and tomatoes, maize, sorghum and millet could also experience supply constraints due to reduced planting activities recorded in 2025.

Current market prices reflect mounting pressure

Food dealers continue to adjust prices. Current average market prices include: local rice (50kg) at ₦85,000 to ₦105,000; foreign parboiled rice (50kg) at ₦110,000 to ₦135,000; fresh tomatoes (large basket) at ₦45,000 to ₦75,000 depending on location; onions (bag) at ₦70,000 to ₦95,000; and fresh peppers (bag) at ₦60,000 to ₦90,000.

Traders say prices remain volatile and could climb further if supplies tighten over the coming weeks. Isong blamed soaring logistics costs. Transporting one tonne of grain from Kano to Lagos now costs about ₦70,000, compared with roughly ₦45,000 previously. On several routes, transportation expenses have doubled or even tripled due to higher fuel and energy costs. Onions and peppers are already becoming scarce in major producing areas, leading to noticeable price increases in urban markets.

Insecurity, storage losses and import dependence

Isong identified insecurity across major farming communities, especially in northern Nigeria, as one of the biggest threats to food production. Thousands of farmers have been displaced, preventing them from accessing their farms and reducing overall agricultural output. Nigeria's poor storage infrastructure also causes between 30 and 50 percent of perishable agricultural produce to be lost before reaching consumers because of inadequate cold chain facilities and post-harvest handling.

Nigeria will continue relying heavily on imported wheat, with imports projected at about 7.2 million tonnes. To prevent a full-scale food shortage, Isong urged the Federal Government, state governments, private investors and development partners to coordinate immediate interventions. He recommended expanding access to improved seeds, fertilisers, irrigation systems and affordable credit ahead of the 2026/2027 planting season. He also called for stronger security in farming communities, improved rural roads, expanded rail freight for agricultural produce, investment in aggregation centres, cold rooms and food processing facilities, and greater collaboration between governments, farmer cooperatives, logistics companies and commodity associations.

According to him, Nigeria already produces substantial quantities of food, but poor storage, insecurity and inefficient distribution prevent much of it from reaching consumers. Without swift action, fresh shortages of rice, tomatoes, peppers, onions and other essential staples could trigger another wave of food inflation before the end of the year.

What this means for the naira and Nigerian households

Rising food prices and tightening supply will put additional pressure on household budgets already strained by high inflation. Food inflation climbed to 16.96 percent in May 2026 from 16.06 percent in April, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Higher costs for staples like rice, tomatoes and onions mean consumers will have to spend more on basic meals, while the naira's weakness continues to push up imported food prices. Without urgent government intervention, food insecurity and cost-of-living pressures are likely to deepen in the months ahead.