Naira faces fresh pressure as fuel importers drive dollar demand, Reuters survey shows

The Nigerian naira is set to weaken against the US dollar over the coming week, according to a Reuters survey of currency traders released on Thursday, July 23. Fuel importers are aggressively buying dollars to build inventories after securing import licences, putting the naira under renewed pressure.

Official and parallel market rates diverge

The naira closed at N1,368 to the dollar in the official foreign exchange market on Thursday, compared with N1,383 the previous week. In the parallel market, the currency traded at roughly N1,420 to the dollar, a premium of about N46. This divergence reverses the near-convergence Nigeria achieved earlier in 2026 when the naira briefly traded around N1,370 to the dollar in February. For the first time in weeks, the naira is now trading above N1,400 per dollar on the black market.

Fuel importers front-load dollar purchases

Traders cited rising demand for foreign exchange from petroleum importers who are building fuel inventories following the issuance of import licences. One trader surveyed by Reuters said importers were buying dollars early in anticipation of higher fuel shipments. "We expect the naira to come under pressure, with downside risks skewed toward a depreciation as fuel importers front-load dollar purchases to build inventories," the trader said.

IPMAN warns against high-cost imports

The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) has urged the Federal Government to reconsider its import policy. IPMAN's National Publicity Secretary, Chinedu Ukadike, said imported petrol is now retailing at around N1,350 per litre, far above prices offered by local refiners like Dangote Petroleum Refinery. He warned that the higher cost of imports feeds directly into greater dollar demand, putting additional strain on the naira at a time when the government is trying to build up foreign exchange buffers. Ukadike questioned why fuel is being sourced from neighbouring countries when locally refined products are cheaper, saying the policy risks deepening exchange rate instability and raising costs across the downstream petroleum sector.

Dangote refinery criticises import licences

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has been a vocal critic of the government's continued issuance of fuel import licences, arguing that local refining capacity can already cover a meaningful share of Nigeria's fuel needs. The refinery contends that importing petroleum products when domestic supply is available burns through the country's scarce foreign exchange reserves unnecessarily. Some industry stakeholders oppose a full ban on imports, maintaining that having multiple fuel suppliers is necessary to prevent monopolistic pricing and protect energy security.

For consumers and the naira, the immediate outlook points to continued depreciation pressure. As fuel importers bid for dollars, demand for the greenback will stay elevated, likely pushing official and parallel rates further apart. That means higher retail petrol prices and more cost pressure on Nigerian businesses and households.