Dangote targets world’s largest refinery with 1.45 million bpd expansion plan

Aliko Dangote plans to expand his refinery's capacity to 1.45 million barrels per day, which would make it the largest refining complex in the world, surpassing India's Reliance Jamnagar Refinery. The expansion comes as the Lekki-based refinery already processes about 660,000 barrels of crude oil daily, helping to cut West Africa's reliance on imported fuel by nearly 25% in the second quarter.

Expansion details and timeline

Dangote Industries plans to install an additional 750,000 bpd crude distillation unit at the existing 700,000 bpd refinery. Once completed, total processing capacity will rise to 1.45 million bpd, overtaking India’s Reliance Jamnagar complex. The expansion will also increase production of polypropylene, base oil and linear alkyl benzene while adding new downstream processing units. Mechanical completion is targeted for December 2028, though industry experts note that projects of this scale typically require several years to fully deliver.

Production gains reshaping West African fuel trade

According to an analysis by Oilprice.com commodity analyst Natalia Katona, the refinery processed about 660,000 barrels of crude oil daily throughout May and June. The strong output has significantly boosted Nigeria’s refined petroleum exports while reducing West Africa’s dependence on imported fuel. The report revealed that imports of clean petroleum products into West Africa from outside the region declined by nearly 25% year-on-year during the second quarter, as Nigerian-produced fuels increasingly replaced supplies from the United States and Gulf countries.

Crude sourcing and aviation fuel exports

The refinery has expanded its crude sourcing strategy for better operational flexibility. In addition to Bonny Light crude, it now processes Nigerian grades including Escravos, Forcados and Bonga, alongside imported crude from the United States, Libya, Cameroon, Ghana and Guyana. The broader crude mix has strengthened gasoline and diesel production while supporting higher export volumes. One of the refinery’s biggest achievements has been its growing aviation fuel exports. In June alone, jet fuel shipments reached about 145,000 bpd, with most cargoes destined for the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp trading hub in Europe. The report noted that Dangote’s competitive production costs have enabled it to win market share from established suppliers in Kuwait, India and the United States despite weaker refining margins in Europe.

Pan-African ambitions beyond Nigeria

Dangote’s ambitions extend beyond Nigeria. The company is pursuing plans for a proposed 700,000 bpd refinery in Kenya, estimated to cost about $17 billion, while also developing large fuel storage infrastructure in Namibia to strengthen petroleum distribution across Southern Africa. Although infrastructure deficits, storage limitations, transport bottlenecks and security concerns remain major challenges, analysts believe the refinery has already reshaped fuel trade across West Africa.

If the planned expansion is completed, Nigeria could emerge not only as Africa’s refining powerhouse but also as one of the world’s most influential players in the global downstream petroleum industry. For the naira and Nigerian consumers, a fully operational world-class refinery means reduced foreign exchange spent on fuel imports and greater energy security in the long term.