Dangote Refinery overtakes US as Europe’s top jet fuel supplier in June as Nigerian airlines struggle with Jet A1 crisis

Dangote Petroleum Refinery shipped 466,000 metric tonnes of jet fuel to Europe in June 2025, overtaking the United States to become the region’s largest supplier for the month. The shipment, equivalent to roughly 582.5 million litres, carried an estimated domestic value of N757.25 billion at current local prices.

Record export volume and market shift

According to a market report by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the June export volume was more than double the 232,000 metric tonnes shipped in May. It marked Nigeria’s biggest monthly aviation fuel export since the country became a net exporter of jet fuel in 2024 following the start of production at the Dangote Refinery.

At an estimated local market price of N1,300 per litre, the cargo is valued at roughly N757.25 billion. The surge came as the United States saw a sharp decline in shipments to Europe. American jet fuel exports dropped from a record 818,000 metric tonnes in April to 560,000 metric tonnes in May, then fell further to 399,000 metric tonnes in June.

Global oversupply and weaker demand

S&P Global Commodity Insights linked the shift to a bearish European jet fuel market driven by oversupply and weaker aviation demand. A trader quoted by S&P Global said the global jet fuel market has become oversupplied as refineries maximised production during periods of elevated prices.

The trader also noted that increased exports from Dangote and the US, alongside the gradual resumption of fuel shipments through the Suez route from the UAE, have added to supply in Europe. The report added that Europe’s jet fuel market has turned increasingly bearish after prices surged during heightened tensions in the Middle East. Expectations of weaker-than-anticipated summer aviation demand and abundant fuel supplies have further softened the market.

Domestic airlines still face high Jet A1 costs

Dangote’s growing export footprint comes at a time when Nigerian airlines have repeatedly raised concerns over the high cost and limited availability of aviation fuel in the domestic market. Airline operators have consistently warned that soaring Jet A1 prices remain one of the biggest drivers of rising operating costs, forcing many carriers to review airfares while struggling to maintain profitable operations.

Although Nigeria now has significant refining capacity for aviation fuel, industry stakeholders have argued that domestic supply challenges and pricing remain unresolved despite increased local production. The contrast between Dangote’s export success and the persistent complaints from Nigerian airlines over expensive and scarce Jet A1 continues to fuel debate over whether local refining capacity is translating into meaningful benefits for the domestic aviation industry.

What this means for the naira and consumers

For the naira, the surge in jet fuel exports represents a significant inflow of foreign exchange, which could help support the currency if sustained. For Nigerian businesses and consumers, however, the disconnect between export volumes and domestic pricing remains a concern. Until local airlines see tangible relief in Jet A1 costs, the benefits of the refinery’s global success may not trickle down to the average traveller or business operator in Nigeria.