Petrol Price Surges Over 600% in Three Years Since Tinubu Ended Subsidy

Market data shows that the price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) in Nigeria has jumped by over 600% in three years. From around N175 per litre in May 2023, it now sells for between N1,300 and N1,400 per litre by May 2026.

Subsidy Removal Triggered Initial Spike

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu announced the end of the fuel subsidy weeks after his inauguration on May 29, 2023. Within weeks, petrol prices rose from N175-N200 per litre to over N500 per litre. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited led the price adjustments as the downstream market moved toward full deregulation.

Foreign exchange reforms and the devaluation of the naira pushed import costs higher. By 2024, petrol prices had crossed N1,000 per litre in many parts of the country due to inflation. Analysts noted a temporary stabilisation through what they called an 'implicit subsidy', where the government offset part of the gap between landing and retail prices. The International Monetary Fund warned that such mechanisms amount to under-recovery schemes and do not reflect the true cost of fuel supply.

Dangote Refinery Brought Relief, Then Reversal

The commissioning of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in 2025 led to a temporary price drop to between N800 and N900 per litre. Competition from the domestic refinery reduced reliance on imports. But gains were reversed in 2026 due to renewed shocks in the international oil market, linked to the Middle East crisis and the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. Global crude prices soared, driving up import costs and pump prices.

By mid-2026, petrol sold for between N1,300 and N1,400 per litre. The National Bureau of Statistics reported some stations charging as high as N1,500.

Economist Warns of Inflationary Shock

Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, told Legit.ng that the immediate consequence of the reforms was a significant inflationary shock. Energy prices surged, transportation and logistics costs escalated, and production expenses increased sharply. The depreciation of the naira amplified imported inflation.

Yusuf stated: 'The removal of fuel subsidy was arguably the most consequential fiscal reform undertaken by the administration. The subsidy regime had become a major drain on public finances, encouraging smuggling, arbitrage and rent-seeking while crowding out productive public investment.'

He added: 'The next phase of reforms must focus on translating macroeconomic stability into inclusive growth through accelerated investment, improved productivity, stronger energy security, security of life and property, enhanced food security, industrial competitiveness and poverty reduction.'

Competition Heats Up in Downstream Sector

Earlier, private depots followed Dangote Petroleum Refinery in lowering petrol prices on Monday, June 1, 2026. Price cuts ranged between N1 and N22 per litre, depending on location and volume. The move has fueled increased competition in the downstream oil industry for customers.